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Tracking “Isaias” – And Weekend Showers
“Nature has a myriad of weapons to combat human arrogance” wrote film director Wayne Gerard Trotman. Tell me about it. From Texas-size hurricanes to invisible, microscopic viruses. We delude ourselves into thinking we’re in charge – but nature always bats last.
“Isaias” is forecast to remain a tropical storm as it churns up the east coast of Florida; hurricane-force gusts are possible Saturday, with moderate coastal erosion and inland flooding from Florida to the Carolinas. Isaias is the earliest 9th storm on record. This may be an intense hurricane season, made much worse by the pandemic.
Which puts our partly-puddly weekend outlook into perspective. A postcard-perfect Friday gives way to a few PM showers and storms Saturday afternoon. Your favorite lake may be warmer than air temperature Sunday, in fact I see 70-degree highs from Sunday into next Thursday.
Don’t even think of stashing away the shorts just yet. Odds favor a few more 90s between by Labor Day. Keep your shorts on stand-by alert.
Tropical Storm Isaias visible image courtesy of NOAA and AerisWeather.
Praedictix Briefing: Issued Thursday, July 30th, 2020:
- Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine became Tropical Storm Isaias last night and is expected to cross Hispaniola today into tonight. As of 11 AM AST, this system had winds of 60 mph and was moving to the northwest at 20 mph.
- Once Isaias crosses Hispaniola, strengthening is expected into the first half of the weekend as the system continues to the northwest. This system will approach the Florida east coast as we head late Saturday into Sunday potentially nearing hurricane strength.
- The system will then turn north and northeast into next week, riding the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coast through Tuesday.
Tropical Storm Isaias. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was upgraded to Tropical Storm Isaias in the Caribbean Sea last night and continues to move off to the northwest this morning. As of the 11 AM AST update from the National Hurricane Center, Isaias had winds of 60 mph and was moving to the northwest at 20 mph. The center of the storm was located 50 miles southwest of Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic, or 165 miles southeast of Puerto Plata in the Dominican Republic. Already heavy rain has occurred across Puerto Rico over the past 24 hours with some rain gauges reporting 4-8″+ across the island. This has led to the potential of flash flooding, with several Flash Flood Warnings in place.
Large Wind Field. The current tropical storm wind field (39+ mph) associated with Isaias is quite large and mainly to the north side of the system. Tropical storm winds extend out 310 miles from the center. Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic had a wind gust of 60 mph around 9 AM.
Expected Track. Isaias is not expected to strengthen much today as the system approaches and crosses over the higher terrain of Hispaniola. We will have to see what that does to the system, as there are some indications that the center of low pressure could (or currently is trying to) reform near the northern side of the Dominican Republic. After that center reforms, strengthening is expected as the system moves off to the northwest into the weekend before a turn to the north and northeast by early next week. On this track, Isaias would pass near the Florida and Southeastern U.S. coast through the weekend into early next week. There are still questions to the potential intensity of this storm, as some model guidance do have this strengthening to a Category 1 hurricane as it nears the United States. We will know more after it passes over Hispaniola.
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings. Ahead of this system, several government authorities have issued numerous Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings. While there are currently no watches in place across the Southeastern United States, I would expect some to be issued later today or tonight if the current forecast path holds. The following alerts are in place:
Tropical Storm Warning
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to thenorthern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, LongCay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,Rum Cay, and San Salvador
Tropical Storm Watch
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence, Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and Bimini.
Earliest Arrival Of Tropical Storm Winds. As this system continues west to west-northwest the next couple of days, the earliest tropical storm winds could arrive across the Turks and Caicos, Bahamas and Cuba is later today into Friday and across portions of Florida Friday Night into Saturday. As the system turns north/northeast, tropical-storm-force winds will be possible across the eastern Carolinas Sunday into Sunday Night. The arrival of tropical storm force winds could make any preparations ahead of the storm difficult to complete once they do arrive.
Melbourne, FL, Wind Gusts. Wind gusts will pick up Saturday Night in Melbourne, FL, as Isaias passes near the Florida coast. The current forecast does show the potential of tropical storm and hurricane-force winds Saturday Night into Sunday, peaking shortly after sunrise Sunday. As the system moves northward, winds would be on the decrease Sunday. Of course, the strength of this system still depends on several factors, including the passage over Hispaniola today.
Heavy Rain Potential. Heavy rain is expected with this storm over the next several days that could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across along the track of Isaias. Here are expected rainfall amounts according to the National Hurricane Center:
- Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches,with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches.
- Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.
- Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.
D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix
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Image credit: “2020 Hurricane Season named storms compared to historical.” NASA.
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Image credit: “High pressure brought extreme temperatures to Iraq on Tuesday. This map shows where the core of high pressure was located.” (WeatherBell)
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Image credit: World Resources Institute.
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Image credit: “A Minnesota-shaped forest, in Minnesota. One of several examples of land art that are only visible from the sky.” Image: Bing Maps.
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Image credit here.
82 F. high in the Twin Cities on Thursday.
83 F. average high on July 30.
77 F. MSP high on July 30, 2019.
July 31, 1961: Very heavy rain falls at Albert Lea, where 6.7 inches is recorded in 24 hours.
FRIDAY: Plenty of warm sunshine. Winds: light. High: 83
SATURDAY: Sunny start, few PM T-storms. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up: 65. High: 84
SUNDAY: Cooler with clouds, few showers. Winds: NE 10-20. Wake-up: 63. High: 74
MONDAY: Some sun with a cool breeze. Winds: NE 10-15. Wake-up: 58. High: near 70
TUESDAY: Partly sunny, feels like September. Winds: E 7-12. Wake-up: 55. High: 69
WEDNESDAY: Trending milder with more sunshine. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 53. High: 74
THURSDAY: More humid, growing thunder risk. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 58. High: 78
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Photo credit: Unsplash/CC0 Public Domain.
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Map source: Ebru Kirezci et al.
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Image credit: “”
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Photo credit: USGS.
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IMPACTS: Climate Nexus has headlines and links: “New York swelters with heat challenging 19th century records (Bloomberg $), Washington [DC] breaks record for most 90-degree days in a month (Washington Post $), believe it or not, forests migrate — but not fast enough for climate change (NPR), holy water: hundreds of U.S. churches face climate risk (E&E $), Texas ranchers, activists and local officials are bracing for megadroughts brought by climate change (Texas Tribune), torrential rains wreak destruction in Yemen, killing dozens.” (AP)
Image credit: NOAA.