If Anyone Asks Minnesota Enjoys a “Dry Cold”

by | Dec 24, 2017 | Blog | 0 comments

If Anyone Asks Minnesota Enjoys a “Dry Cold”
Christmas Eve Eve (Saturday) Sunrise
I certainly don’t take seeing the sun for granted during the month of December as it is typically the cloudiest month of the year – averaging a little more than 18 cloudy days. Late December also sees some of the shortest days of the year with just under 9 hours of daylight. The good news is that we are passed the Winter Solstice now and daylight hours are increasing! We will gain nearly 1 hour of extra daylight by the end of January!
 
Christmas Cold!
“Lows Christmas morning will range from the 20s below zero across northern Minnesota to near zero across southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin.”
“Highs Christmas Day will range from 10 to 15 below zero across northern Minnesota to the single digits across southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin.”
“Lows Christmas night will range from 25 to 30 below across northern Minnesota to 5 to 15 below across southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin.”

_________________________________________________________________________
 
“Canada’s Newest Snow-Clearing Method Makes Streets Look Like a Bloodbath”
“In the Great White North, snowstorms are a matter of life and death. Or, at least, that’s what it looks like these days, as a new snow-clearing method is making some streets look like the site of a bloody massacre. This week in Calgary, Alberta, city officials took to the snowy streets with a mixture of salt and beet juice, which they say is a more eco-friendly and cost-effective way to de-ice roads than using only salt. The CBC reported on Tuesday that Calgary is expanding its use of beet juice after previous small trial runs proved successful. The snowy city is following in the footsteps of towns such as Laval and Cowansville, both in Quebec, as well as Toronto — all cities that have previously used similar beet-juice mixtures on roads in preparation for storms. In Calgary, the mixture of beet juice and salt is being sprayed directly onto the streets from a two-ton truck that can hold 40,000 liters of beet juice.”
See more from Inverse HERE:
 
Seasonfall Snowfall
Here’s the national snowfall analysis so far this season, which shows that every state in the Lower 48 has seen snow! Interestingly, some loctions across the Southern U.S. have seen more snow that the Twin Cities has seen.
Snow Depth 2017
The snow depth map across the country for December 23rd suggests that 39.2% of the country is covered in snow with some even as far as texas. At this time last year ,42.9% of the nation was covered in snow. The Twin Cities officially has 1″ of snow on the ground at the MSP Airport, so it looks like we’ll have an official white XMAS. Last year, however, the Twin Cities at 4″ of snow on the ground on XMAS day.
Snow Depth 2016
At this time last year 42.9% of the nation was covered in snow.
 

 

Probability of a White Christmas?

Ever wondered what the probability of a white Christmas was across parts of the country? Here’s a map from NOAA, which suggests that folks in the high eleveations and those across the far northern tier of the nation have the best chance to see at least 1″ of snow on the ground on December 25th.
 

 

Minnesota’s Probability of a White Christmas
What about Minnesota? Well climatology suggests that 3 out of 4 Christmases have at least an 1″ of snow on the ground in the Twin Cities. Thanks to the @NWSTwinCities and the MN Climatology page for the information below. The deepest snow cover on December 25th was 20″ in 1983 and the last “brown” Christmas (less than 1″ of snow on the ground) was just two years ago in 2015!
See more from the MN Climatology page HERE:

____________________________________________________________________________

“Minnesota Sees Deadliest Winter In Years”
“Minnesota has already had five ice-related deaths this winter. The state typically averages three during the whole season. Minnesota is on track to have one of its deadliest winters in years. Five people have died this season after falling through ice. The state typically averages three ice-related deaths over the course of the entire winter. The 2015-2016 winter had zero ice-related deaths, while the 2016-2017 winter had two. The last time Minnesota saw ice-related deaths in the double digits was in the 2002-2003 winter, when the state had 10 fatalities. The most recent death this year happened in northern Minnesota where a women drowned after riding an ATV on Rice Lake. Minnesota Department of Natural Resources conservation officer Hannah Mishler has already responded to multiple ice rescue calls. “Ice, especially snow covered ice, is extremely deceptive. You can’t see dangerous cracks or the thickness of the ice under the snow,” Mishler said in a statement.”
See more from Patch HERE:
 
Ice Safety!!
Before you go testing the ice on area lakes and ponds, remember that “ICE IS NEVER 100% SAFE!” So when is ice safe? Here is an excerpt from the MN DNR regarding ice safety:
“There really is no sure answer. You can’t judge the strength of ice just by its appearance, age, thickness, temperature, or whether or not the ice is covered with snow. Strength is based on all these factors — plus the depth of water under the ice, size of the water body, water chemistry and currents, the distribution of the load on the ice, and local climatic conditions.”
 

 

General Ice Thickness Guidelines
Here are some general ice thickness guidelines from the MN DNR:
For new, clear ice ONLY:

Under 4″ – STAY OFF
4″ – Ice fishing or other activities on foot
5″ – 7″ – Snowmobile or ATV
8″ – 12″ – Car or small pickup
12″ – 15″ – Medium truck

Many factors other than thickness can cause ice to be unsafe.
White ice or “snow ice” is only about half as strong as new clear ice. Double the above thickness guidelines when traveling on white ice.

See more from the MN DNR HERE:

 

_________________________________________________________________________

Weather Outlook Ahead

Here’s the weather outlook from Sunday to Tuesday, which shows fairly quiet weather happening close to home through Christmas day. Good news for travelers locally, but for those headed southeast near Chicago and the surrounding states, a fast moving storm system could bring a fesh coasting of snow that may hamper traveling there.

Snowfall Potential
Here’s the snowfall potential through Christmas day, which shows a snowy swath from Nebraska to the Great Lakes as our quick moving storm scoots through the Central US. This storm will sail well south of Minnesota, so cold and snowless weather continues here.
 

 ___________________________________________________________________

Temperature Anomaly on Saturday
The image below shows the temperature anomaly across North America from Saturday. Note the cooler blues across much of Canada and starting to move into the Lower 48. However, intense oranges and reds were still in place across the Eastern US. This is where warmer than average temperatures were located.
 
Arctic Air Mass Arrives
We’ve been watching weather models over the last several days, which continue to show a large batch of Arctic air heading south of the International border. This significantly colder than average air mass will impace much of the nation during the last full week of December.
 

 

Arctic Air MassArrives

The 850mb temp anomaly loop below through the middle part of the week shows a large chunk of colder than average temperatures impacting much of the nation during the last full week of December. This will be some of the coldest air of the season for many with daytime highs staying below 0F for some up north.
 
 

 

High Temps Sunday

High temperatures on Sunday will still be VERY chilly across much of the country with temperatures running nearly 10F to 15F below average. Meanwhile, warmer than average temperatures will continue in the southwestern and southeastern part of the country.

 
 

 

Weather Outlook Ahead
With cold air in place across much of the nation, it looks like the week ahead could feature more areas of wintry precipitation across more of the nation. A system will slide through the central part of the country and into the Great Lakes through the early part of the week, while another storm develops in the Western US.
5 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA’s WPC, the 5 day precipitation outlook suggests areas of heavier precipitation continuing across the Northeastern part of the country through midweek. There will also be heavier precipitation across the Gulf Coast States and across the higher elevations in the Rockies and Cascade ranges.

Snowfall Potential Ahead
A snowy strip looks possible over the next several days from the Pacific Northwest across the midsection of the country and into the Northeast. There may even be a little snow across the Tennessee Valley. The heaviest will fall in the higher elevations out west and across parts of the Northeast.
 

 __________________________________________________________________________

Thomas Fire
The Thomas Fire continues in Southern California. As of Saturday, Cal Fire said the fire had burned 273,400 acres and is now the largest fire in modern California state history! The has burned more than 1000 structures and at least 18,000 homes are still threatened. The fire is currently 65% contained and full containment maybe possible by the early part of January, weather permitting.
See more from Cal Fire HERE:

___________________________________________________________________________
PRELIMINARY 2017 Tornado Map

It certainly has been a fairly active first half of 2017 with 1,521 preliminary tornado reports through December 22nd. Note that this is the most tornadoes through that date since 2011, when there were 1,897 reports. The map below shows the distribution of the tornadoes so far this year.

PRELIMINARY 2017 Tornado Count

According to NOAA’s SPC, the PRELIMINARY 2017 tornado count is 1,521 (through December 22nd). Note that is the most active year for tornadoes since 2011, when there were 1,897 tornadoes. Notice that the only other year with more tornadoes than this year was in 2008, which ended with a whopping 2,140 tornadoes nationwide.


_____________________________________________________________________

National Weather Hazards Ahead…

1.) High winds for coastal sections of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, Mon-Tue, Dec 25-26.
2.) Heavy snow for parts of the southern and central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, Fri, Dec 29.
3.) Heavy precipitation for parts of the Mid-Atlantic, Fri, Dec 29.
4.) Frozen precipitation for parts of the central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, Sat, Dec 30.
5.) Much below-normal temperatures spreading eastward across much of the northern tier of the CONUS and parts of the central Plains, Mon-Fri, Dec 25-29.
7.) Much above-normal temperatures for western and northern mainland Alaska, Mon-Tue, Dec 25-26.
Slight risk of much below-normal temperatures for much of the central and eastern CONUS, Sat-Thu, Dec 30-Jan 4 2018.
8.) Moderate risk of much below-normal temperatures for much of the north-central and northeastern CONUS, and parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and southeast, Sat-Mon, Dec 30-Jan 1 2018.
9.) Slight risk of heavy precipitation for parts of the southeast, Wed-Fri, Jan 3-5 2018.
Flooding possible for parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
10.) Severe drought (D2 or worse) is indicated over the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, southern Great Plains, northern Great Plains, Arizona, Utah and Hawaii.

_____________________________________________________________________

If Anyone Asks Minnesota Enjoys a “Dry Cold”
By Paul Douglas

As we ponder our big Christmas present, shipped airmail from The Yukon Territories, this might be a good time to talk about a meteorological trade-off, one that’s helped me tolerate the chill over the years.

Our coldest days tend to be sunny. Frigid Canadian air is also very dry, increasing the odds of blue sky. “Numb, with a risk of sunglasses”. Maybe I’m rationalizing here, but it helps.

You see, Minnesota enjoys a “dry cold”. Take that Phoenix. The coldest I’ve ever been is walking the Miracle Mile in Chicago, with 5F, a 40 mph wind and a humidity of 90 percent. Freezing feels much worse in cities close to (big) lakes or oceans; a high humidity means the cold cuts right through you.

Enjoy teens today; a reinforcing clipper pulls arctic air into town Christmas Day; a coating of fluff possible. The mercury may not climb much above 0F Tuesday with a windchill that may leave you daydreaming of the Caribbean. Light snow late next week may accumulate a couple inches. We’re due. And 2018 starts with some negative numbers. Models hint at moderation the second week of January.
________________________________________________________________________

Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: Some sun. Flurries late. Winds: W 7-12. Wake-up: 8. High: 20.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a few flurries. Winds: W 5-10. Low: 0. Feels like: -10F

MONDAY: Dusting of flurries.Feels like -20F. Gusty winds. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 7.

TUESDAY: Numb. At least the sun is out. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: -10. High: 1.

WEDNESDAY: Nippy sun. Fading sun. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: -9. High: 7.

THURSDAY: Light snow. Light accumulation? Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 2. High: 14.

FRIDAY: More light snow. Roads may be icy. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 4. High: 13.

SATURDAY: Another scoop of Arctic delight. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: -2. High: 4
_______________________________________________________

This Day in Weather History
December 24th

1996: Strong winds of 20 to 30 mph, combined with over a foot of new snowfall, result in restricted visibilities from blowing snow. As a result, several highways closed, including highway 19 west of Redwood Falls, highways 7 and 40 at Madison, and highways 67 and 23 out of Granite Falls.

1982: Heavy rain falls over the state, along with slushy snow over southwest Minnesota. Twin Cities gets 2.61 inches of precipitation through Christmas. Some lightning and thunder occur with the heavy rain on Christmas Eve.
_______________________________________________________

Average High/Low for Minneapolis
December 24th

Average High: 25F (Record: 46F set in 1957)
Average Low: 10F (Record: -31F set in 1872)

Record Rainfall: 1.26″ set in 1982
Record Snowfall: 5.2″ set in 2009
_________________________________________________________

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
December 24th

Sunrise: 7:49am
Sunset: 4:36pm

Hours of Daylight: ~8 hours 47 mins

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~12 seconds
Daylight GAINED since winter solstice (December 21st): 1 minute
__________________________________________________________

Moon Phase for December 24th at Midnight
1.1 Day Before First Quarter Moon

_________________________

Weather Outlook For Sunday

High temps on Sunday will be quite chilly across much of the region with readings nearly -5F to -20F below average! Some locations across the far northern reaches of Minnesota may not even make it above 0F for daytime highs.

__________________________________________________________________________
Minneapolis Temperature Outlook

Here’s the temperature outlook from the GEFS & ECMWF modles through January 6th/7th. Both models show considerable cold sticking with us through much of the end of the month. The first few days of 2018 could be quite cold still, but the extended forecast is suggesting a warming trend by the first full weekend of 2018.

_________________________________________________________________

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

Here’s the temperature outlook through the 1st week of January, which suggests MUCH colder than average temperatures sticking around much of the Midwest and Great Lakes through the time period. With winter officially here, it looks like winter-like will be present.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

Here’s the extended temperature outlook as we head through the 1st week of January. Note that colder than average temperatures look to stick around through much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation, while warmer than average weather will be found in the Western US.

_____________________________________________________________________
“8 NATURAL WAYS TO BEAT THE WINTER BLUES, ACCORDING TO A PSYCHIATRIST”
“Winter can be tough: When the sky falls dark before 5 p.m., it can be hard to summon your sunniest mood. Whether you have a touch of seasonal affective disorder or just don’t love winter, rockstar psychiatrist Drew Ramsey, MD, says you *can* beat the cold-weather blues. Here, the Well+Good Council member shares a few of his ideas on feeling more energetic and positive—just in time for the solstice. The depth of winter is upon us. The bone-chilling cold is here, the sunlight is scant, and the most productive thing about you is your cough. Over the years, I’ve learned a few things as I try to crack the code on the winter blues for my patients and myself. My Well+Good Winter Blues Rx is one part adventure, a dash of reality, and a twist of retail therapy. Here are 8 things to keep in mind when the temperatures drop.”
See more from Well and Good HERE:
 

___________________________________________________________________________

“PSA: YOUR PUP *PROBABLY* NEEDS A WINTER WARDROBE—HERE’S WHY”
“Seeing a pup outfitted in a coat and booties on a cold winter day can spark serious controversy between a dog lover and their skeptical BFF or S.O., who might be of the “Dogs don’t wear clothes!” camp. But it turns out there’s a legit reason why your canine pal may need its own winter wardrobe for the chilly season. The reality of the situation is, as The New York Times puts it, not all dogs are built to handle freezing temps without a little help from their human pals (save for arctic breeds like huskies, Samoyeds, and malamutes). And while pet owners are getting onboard to shell out for the premium pet food their pups deserve, many remain reluctant to invest in the proper winter gear that’s necessary to protect their furry friends during the colder season.”
See more from Well and Good HERE:

____________________________________________________________________________
“12 Clever Winter Gadgets You Need Right Now”
“Winter is here, and unless you live in the tropics, you’ll need some high tech cold-weather gear to warm you up, keep you safe, and make your chilly-weather adventures much more fun. Whether you love exploring the great outdoors or just want to stay warm and toasty at your workplace, these smart winter gadgets will surely help you get through the season in style.”
See more from Travel Away HERE:
 

____________________________________________________________________________

“How a severe drought in Sicily in 1893 created the Mafia”
“Historical links between climate and political uprisings are well documented. A drought in France in 1788 resulted in widespread crop failure (pdf) and soaring food prices, which historians believe stoked the French revolution of the following year. More recently, four years of drought in Syria between 2006 and 2010 created mass unemployment, contributing to the civil war that rages to this day. A provocative new paper makes the case that a drought also created the world’s most notorious criminal organization.”
See more from QZ HERE:
 

______________________________________________________________________________

“Sun May Be Dimming: NASA To Confirm Declining Luminosity Using SpaceX’s Payload”
“Due to a drop in number of sunspots and the resulting decrease in total solar radiance (TSI) values, NASA launched a new sensor to study the dimming sun. Data from NASA’s Spaceweather website showed after a solar maximum 2012, which lasted till 2014, we have entered a solar minimum period in the solar cycle, which has caused the sun’s electromagnetic output to drop by 0.1 percent. SpaceX  launched a new sensor to the International Space Station named  NASA’s Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS-1) on Dec. 15. It will add to the plethora of instruments dangling from the space station and help measure the TSI. It will also replace the aging SORCE spacecraft to aid in the study of the sun. All past data showed we are heading towards the 11-year minimum in the sun’s cycle. In 2017, 96 days (27 percent) were without sunspots. The TSI values last plunged to its low point in 2009. In fact, it marked the year with the lowest recorded electromagnetic activity from the sun, where 260 (71 percent) days of the 365 were spotless, since scientists started gathering data in 1978.”
See more from IBTimes HERE:
 

____________________________________________________________________________

“The Most Expensive Weather Year Ever”
“Economists are tallying the damage from the fires and the hurricanes, and finding their true costs immeasurable. There were the hurricanes that rained down biblical floods on Texas and Florida and devastated Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. There were the fires that smoked wine country and coated Montana and Oregon in ash, and the fires that are burning down houses in Santa Barbara. Then, there were the king tides that flooded Miami, the heat waves that seared the southwest, the tornadoes that scarred the southeast, and the rains that never came in the Cascades. No wonder the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration has deemed this to be the second most extreme year, weather-wise, in the past century. That extreme weather has taken a devastating and unknowable human toll, on families from San Juan to San Francisco. And it has taken economic one as well. It now seems a near certainty that 2017 will be the most expensive year in American history in terms of natural disasters—and a preview of the trillions of dollars of costs related to climate change yet to come.”
See more from The Atlantic HERE:
_____________________________________________________________________________

Thanks for checking in and don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

Leave a Reply