Saturday Sunrise
WOW! Look at that tranquil view from early Saturday morning… That after a record high on Black Friday as the Twin Cities warmed to 60F beating the previous record of 59F set in 2011.
November Numbers…
Here are the numbers through the first 24 days of November for the Twin Cities. The first half of the month was VERY chilly and at one point, Minneapolis was nearly 10F below average. However, the last several days have been quite mild and we’ve been taking a bite out of the temp deficit as of late. Through November 24th, the temp deficit has been cut to nearly 2.6F below average and we’ll likely see that continue to dwindle as temperatures are expected to remain above average through the end of the month next Thursday! In fact, we could hit 60F again by Monday… The record high for Monday is 64F set in 1998, so we might fall short of that.
Least Snowy Novembers in the Twin Cities
Here’s the top 10 least snowy Novembers on record in the Twin Cities and note the top 10 are all under 1″. This year, the Twin Cities has only seen a measly 0.6″ of snow, which is on track for the 8th least snowy November on record. Looking at the extended forecast, there’s doesn’t appear to be much in the way of snow potential through the end of the month, which is already next Thursday.
Snow Depth 2017 vs 2003
Here’s the estimated snow depth from NOAA’s NOHRSC, which shows how much more snow there is across the state this year compared to what we had in 2003! On November 22-23, there was a broad swath of 6″ to 10″ that fell across the state. The snow was still on the ground on the 25th and the Twin Cities had a snow depth of 4″, while St. Cloud had a snow depth of 7″ on the 25th. Meanwhile, most of the snow that we had earlier this month has pretty much melted with the exception of far northern and northeastern MN, where some spots still have 2″ to 4″+ on the ground.

Mostly Quiet Continues
Here’s the forecast from Sunday to Tuesday, which shows mostly quiet conditions continuing! Great news for holiday travelers that may be heading from from Grandma’s house on Sunday or into early next week. Extended forecast are even showing mostly quiet weather through all of next week!

Minimal Snow Chances Ahead

Here’s the snowfall potential through the end of the month, which is on Thursday. Note that this particular model (GFS) shows VERY quiet conditions with minimal snow chances over the next several days. Snow lovers will have to continue being patient as Old Man Winter takes his sweet time showing up.

Minimal Precipitation Chances Ahead

Here’s the precipitation chance through Thursday, which suggests a pretty dry end of November. The only chance of precipitation looks to be across the far northern part of the state.

 

_________________________________________________________________

Ice Safety
Ice is starting to form on area lakes and ponds, but we’re far from the ice being safe out there! Here’s an excerpt from the MN DNR regarding ice safety. Note that ICE IS NEVER 100% SAFE, but in order to walk out safely onto the ice, you need 4″ of ice!
There really is no sure answer. You can’t judge the strength of ice just by its appearance, age, thickness, temperature, or whether or not the ice is covered with snow. Strength is based on all these factors — plus the depth of water under the ice, size of the water body, water chemistry and currents, the distribution of the load on the ice, and local climatic conditions.
___________________________________________________________
PRELIMINARY 2017 Tornado Map

It certainly has been a fairly active first half of 2017 with 1,509 preliminary tornado reports through November 24th. Note that this is the most tornadoes through that date since 2011, when there were 1,880 reports. The map below shows the distribution of the tornadoes so far this year.

PRELIMINARY 2017 Tornado Count

According to NOAA’s SPC, the PRELIMINARY 2017 tornado count is 1,509 (through November 24th). Note that is the most active year for tornadoes since 2011, when there were 1,880 tornadoes. Notice that the only other year with more tornadoes than this year was in 2008, which ended with a whopping 2,140 tornadoes nationwide.


_____________________________________________________________________

National Weather Hazards Ahead…

1.) Heavy snow for parts of the Northern Cascades, Mon-Tue, Nov 27-28.
2.) Heavy snow for parts of the northern and central Rockies, Mon, Nov 27.
3.) Heavy precipitation for parts of south coastal mainland Alaska, Tue-Wed, Nov 28-29.
4.) High winds for parts of the interior western U.S., Mon, Nov 27.
5.) High winds for southern California, Mon-Tue, Nov 27-28.
6.) Periods of high winds for the Aleutians, extreme southwestern mainland Alaska, Alaska peninsula, and south coastal mainland Alaska, Mon-Fri, Nov 27-Dec 1.
7.) Periods of high significant wave heights for parts of the Aleutians, Alaska peninsula, and south coastal mainland Alaska, Mon-Fri, Nov 27-Dec 1.
8.) Slight risk of much below-normal temperatures for parts of northern and central California, Mon-Tue, Dec 4-5.
9.) Flooding occurring or imminent along multiple rives across west-central Washington.
10.) Severe drought across parts of the lower and middle Mississippi Valley, Great Plains, Northern Rockies, Arizona, and Hawaii.

_____________________________________________________________________

High Temps Sunday

Here’s a look at high temperatures across the nation on Sunday, which suggests that temperatures across much of the nation will still be running above average! Note that areas west of the Mississippi River Valley will be running WELL above average; some locations could be near 20F above average! However, areas in the eastern third of the nation will be running a little bit below average, especially in the Northeast.

More Record Heat Ahead

We’ve been setting several record highs over the last several days and it looks like it will continue as we head through the rest of the weekend and into early next week! Here are the potential records on Sunday and Monday. Note how widespread the records could be across the Plains on Monday!

National Weather Outlook

Here’s the weather outlook through Monday, which shows a little light rain/snow mix moving through the Northeast. The only other spot that looks to get any appreciative moisture is the Western US. This storm system looks to be fairly sizeable with quite a bit of moisture possible through early next week. Areas of heavy rain could lead to localized areas of flooding while high elevations will likely see areas of heavy snow!

7 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA’s WPC, areas of heaviest precipitation will be found across the Western US with double digit liquid tallies possible across the high elevations in the Sierra Nevada Range, Cascades and the Olympic Mountains. There will also be a few areas in the Central & Northern Rockies that see heavy precipitation as well.

Snowfall Potential
Here’s the snowfall potential over the next 5 days, which shows the heaviest snow falling across the high elevations in the Western US. There will also be some light accumulations across the northern tier of the nation and into the Northeast.
________________________________________________________________________
The Extended Forecast is a Yawner – More like October
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

The “Gales of November” showed up early this year as a strong storm whipped up 60mph winds and huge waves on Lake Superior in late October. The fall storm season started off on a promising note for those who appreciate large mid-latitude cyclones; ones like the Armistice Day Blizzard of 1940 and the storm that sank the Edmund Fitzgerald on November 10th, 1975! Anyone living in the Upper Midwest over a few decades can attest that November is a month we can be leery of. Well not this year. Other than a few bouts of snow across the northern half the state earlier this month, it’s been an overall breeze.

The Twin Cities typically sees 9.3″ of snow this month, but has only seen a skimpy 0.6 inches of snow and is on track to tie its 8th least snowy November on record. Remarkably, the extended forecasts keep us dry and mild through the end of the month.

Don’t mind me while I put my feet up and flip the forecast into autopilot. YAWN! Wake me up when something interesting shows up on the models.

Where’d I put that leftover turkey leg.

 

________________________________________________________________________
Extended Forecast
SUNDAY: Mild sun – good travel day. Winds: WSW 5. High: 49.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and quiet. Winds: SE 5. Low: 34
MONDAY: Feels like October – near record warmth. Winds: S 10-20. High: 59.
TUESDAY: Slightly cooler breeze. Still dry. Winds: WNW 10-20. Wake-up: 38. High: 47.
WEDNESDAY: Quiet. Clouds thicken late. Winds: SSW 10-15. Wake-up: 29. High: 45.
THURSDAY: Snowless end to November. Winds: WNW 10-15. Wake-up: 30. High: 41.
FRIDAY: Dry start to December. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up: 26. High: 42.
SATURDAY: Remarkably quiet. Winds: SSE 5-15. Wake-up: 28. High: 43.
_______________________________________________________

This Day in Weather History
November 26th

2001: A strong low pressure system develops in Colorado on the 25th, reached eastern Iowa during the evening of the 26th, then moved into eastern Wisconsin late on the 27th. It produced a wide swath of heavy snow across much of central Minnesota into West Central Wisconsin. Storm total snowfall of 8 inches or more was common, with a large area exceeding 20 inches. Specifically, Willmar picked up 30.4 inches, New London saw 28.5 inches, Collegeville had 23.4 inches, Litchfield and Granite Falls received 22 inches, and Milan had 20 inches. A convective snow band set up across this area on the 27th and remained nearly stationary for over 12 hours, resulting in the extreme storm totals. From 8 am on the 26th to 8 am on the 27th, Willmar received 21 of its 30.4 inches, setting a record for most snowfall in Willmar in a 24 hour period. The heavy wet snow downed numerous power lines, and at one point, at least 20,000 customers were without power in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area. Over one thousand traffic accidents were noted across the entire area. Most were minor, but one accident claimed two lives when a car spun out and collided with a semi near Mora.

1995: A narrow band of five to eight inches of snow falls from west central Minnesota around Canby and Granite Falls to east central Minnesota. This included much of the Twin Cities metro area.

1965: A snowstorm develops across northern Minnesota. 14.7 inches of snow fell at Duluth, along with 13.6 inches at Grand Rapids.

1896: A severe Thanksgiving day ice storm develops over southwest and central Minnesota. 1.42 inches of freezing rain falls at Bird Island, and 1.20 inches of freezing rain falls at Montevideo. The ice causes a great deal of damage to trees and shrubs.

________________________________________________________

Average High/Low for Minneapolis
November 26th

Average High: 35F (Record: 62F set in 1914)
Average Low: 20F (Record: -16F set in 1977)

Record Rainfall: 1.76″ set in 1896
Record Snowfall: 5.9″ set in 2001
_________________________________________________________

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 26th

Sunrise: 7:25am
Sunset: 4:35pm

Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours 10 mins

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~1 minutes and 49 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 20th): 6 hours & 27 minutes
__________________________________________________________

Moon Phase for November 26th at Midnight
0.6 Before First Quarter

_________________________

Weather Outlook For Sunday

Temps on Sunday will be very mild once again with readings warming into the 40s and 50s across the southern half of the state, which will be nearly 10F to 20F above average! Temps across the northern half of the state will warm into the 30s, which will still be a bit above average.

Weather Outlook For Monday
Monday will be even warmer as temps across the southern half of the state will warm into the 60s, nearly 20F above average and possibly even near record levels! Temps in the northern half of the state will warm into the 40s, which will be nearly 10F above average. However, look at how widespread the record high temperatures will be across the Plains on Monday as many warm into the 70s and even 80s there!
 
 
Record Highs Possible Monday
__________________________________________________________________________
Minneapolis Temperature Outlook

Here’s the temperature outlook through December 10th, which shows very warm temps continuing through the early part of next week where temps will warm in the 40s and 50s. It appears that temps may still be a little warmer than average as we start December. The extended forecast suggests temperatures dipping into the 20s as we approach the 2nd weekend of December. Keep in mind that the average high by December 10th is 29F.

_________________________________________________________________

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

Here’s the temperature outlook from into the early part of December, which suggests that temperatures will still be above average for much of the Midwest.

6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA’s CPC – much of the nation will remain above average as we head into the early part of December. The only spot that may see below average temps is in the Western US.

_____________________________________________________________________“Artificial lights are eating away at dark nights — and that’s not a good thing:

“Earth is losing its darkness. A new study using satellite data finds that artificially lit surfaces around the world are spreading and growing brighter, producing more light pollution at night. The findings, described in the journal Science Advances, track what researchers called a worrisome trend that has implications for the environment as well as human health. “This is concerning, of course, because we are convinced that artificial light is an environmental pollutant with ecological and evolutionary implications for many organisms — from bacteria to mammals, including us humans — and may reshape entire social ecological systems,” Franz Holker of the Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, one of the study’s authors, said in a briefing. Thanks to electric lights, outdoor lighting grew at a rate of 3% to 6% annually in the second half of the 20th century. While this has benefited human productivity and safety, it has come with a dark side: The night is no longer dark enough.”

See more from LATimes HERE:

(Image Credit: Francine Orr Via Los Angeles Times)

 

________________________________________________________________________“Hurricane Maria Damage Estimate of $102 Billion Surpassed Only by Katrina”

“Two months after Category 4 Hurricane Maria pounded Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Thanksgiving holiday on the islands will be a difficult one. Approximately half of Puerto Rico’s 1.5 million customers still do not have power, 10% do not have water service, and a third of the island’s cell phone towers are not working. In the U.S. Virgin Islands, 73% of the 103,000 residents still had no power two weeks ago. Last week, Puerto Rico Governor Ricardo Rossello asked the federal government for $94.4 billion in disaster recovery aid; $5 billion in aid has been approved for Puerto Rico thus far by Congress. In mid-November, U.S. Virgin Islands Governor Kenneth Mapp asked Congress for $7.5 billion in Hurricane Maria disaster assistance; Congress has thus far only approved $0.5 billion in loans to the Virgin Islands. The combined $102 billion in damage aid requests for Maria from the two governors would put Maria in second place behind Hurricane Katrina of 2005 ($161 billion in damage) on the list of costliest weather disasters in world recorded history. An early estimate of insured damages from Maria from insurance broker AIR Worldwide was $40 – $85 billion; since total damage is typically about double insured damage, Maria’s pricetag may end up being well in excess of $100 billion.”

See more from Wunderground HERE:

___________________________________________________________“Fans of cold and snow in the U.S. will love this new winter outlook”

“To make a successful winter forecast for the U.S., meteorologists must examine a dizzying array of factors, from fickle fluctuations in ocean conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean to the decline of Arctic sea ice and related snow cover in Siberia. Each forecasting group, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which produces the official outlook for the U.S., has their own biases that can determine whether their projection proves prescient or wildly off target. One of the most accurate winter outlooks during the past several years has been issued by a forecast group led by Judah Cohen, a meteorologist and devout snow-lover who works in the private sector at AER in Massachusetts.”

See more from Mashable HERE:

(Image credit: Getty Images via Mashable)

 

________________________________________________________________________“NASA shows two decades of changing seasons in minutes”

“NASA captured 20 years of changing seasons in a striking new global map of the home planet. The data visualization, released this week, shows Earth’s fluctuations as seen from space. The polar ice caps and snow cover are shown ebbing and flowing with the seasons. The varying ocean shades of blue, green, red and purple depict the abundance — or lack — of undersea life. “It’s like watching the Earth breathe. It’s really remarkable,” said NASA oceanographer Jeremy Werdell, who took part in the project. Two decades — from September 1997 to this past September — are crunched into 2 ½ minutes of viewing.”

See more from NYPost HERE:

 

______________________________________________________________“A Mysterious Object Flying Past the Sun Is Our First Confirmed Visitor From Another Solar System”

“A mysterious asteroid detected speeding past the sun in October has been confirmed by scientists to be a visitor from outside our solar system, the first of its kind to be detected. The interstellar rock is traveling at a speed that raised eyebrows amongst astronomers because it was fast enough to leave the sun’s orbit. Its trajectory is hyperbolic — meaning at a different angle to the plane that most objects orbiting the sun coalesce around. Astronomers confirmed that the object, which they named ‘’Oumuamua’ after a Hawaiian term meaning scout or messenger, does in fact have interstellar origins, after an analysis found its speed would be impossible to achieve within this solar system.”

See more from TIME HERE:

 

____________________________________________________________“One Ocean, Two La Nina Forecasts: A Look Behind the Numbers”

“The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a La Nina alert Tuesday meaning conditions in the Pacific Ocean have just about reached the point where the weather-roiling phenomena is about to get cracking. But wait, just two weeks ago the U.S. said a La Nina had started. What’s behind the conflicting signals? It turns out the U.S. and Australia use different criteria to determine when one La Nina milestone is reached. For the U.S., its a drop in sea-surface temperatures of 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 Fahrenheit) below the 1981-2010 average. Australia waits for a 0.8 degree Celsius drop from the 1961-1991 average. And though Australia is switching to the newer temperature set, which reflects the warming of the Earth since 1961, it will still wait for a 0.8 degree drop, meaning the U.S., on occasion, will declare a La Nina before their Aussie counterparts.”

See more from Bloomberg HERE:

____________________________________________________________________“Polar bears crowd on Russian island in sign of Arctic change”

“A boatload of tourists in the far eastern Russian Arctic thought they were seeing clumps of ice on the shore, before the jaw-dropping realisation that some 200 polar bears were roaming on the mountain slope. “It was a completely unique situation,” said Alexander Gruzdev, director of the Wrangel Island nature reserve where the encounter in September happened. “We were all gobsmacked, to be honest.” The bears had come to feast on the carcass of a bowhead whale that washed ashore, later resting around the food source. The crowd included many families, including two mothers trailed by a rare four cubs each, Gruzdev told AFP. Climate change means ice, where polar bears are most at home, is melting earlier in the year and so polar bears have to spend longer on land, scientists say.”

See more from 24 Matins HERE:

 

__________________________________________________________________

“Six Weather-Climate Related Thanksgiving Facts And Musings”

“Thanksgiving is just around the corner, and it is usually a time for feasts, fun, and family. As I come up for air after binge watching college basketball, I decided to have a little fun with some weather and climate science facts related to Thanksgiving. Here are six facts or musings that crossed my mind. Carbon footprint of your turkey. Many people will eat the traditional thanksgiving turkey. Food and meat production are carbon intensive activities according to the Environmental Working Group report, The Meat Eater’s Guide to Climate Change and Health. The graphic below illustrates that lamb and beef production account for the most significant carbon footprints. The University of Michigan’s Carbon Footprint Factsheet defines carbon footprint as the total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions caused directly and indirectly by an individual, organization, event or product. It is calculated by summing the emissions resulting from every stage of a product or service’s lifetime (material production, manufacturing, use phase, and end-of-life disposal). Throughout a product’s lifetime, or lifecycle, different greenhouse gases (GHGs) may be emitted, such as methane and nitrous oxide, each with a greater or lesser ability to trap heat in the atmosphere. These differences are accounted for by calculating the global warming potential (GWP) of each gas in units of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e), giving carbon footprints a single unit for easy comparison.”

See more from Forbes HERE:

_____________________________________________________________

“This Is how Students Get to School in the Russian Arctic”

“The school day in Russia’s northeastern republic of Sakha ended in time for a vicious snowstorm to accompany children during their walk home. A blogger in the region posted a video of their treacherous march on his Twitter feed. Whipped by the freezing winds and snow, the children are seen not so much walking as tumbling over, pulling each other along.”

See more from MoscowTimes HERE:

_______________________________________________________________

“The Areas of the U.S. Most Likely to Have a White Christmas This Year”

“We know you’re dreaming of it, but is a white Christmas in the cards for your town?  The big day may still be weeks away, but early weather predictions are beginning to give us a glimpse of the holiday in question. While forecasts made this far in advance don’t always pan out, one of the most trusted sources in predicting the year’s weather patterns have put their hat in the ring. The Old Farmer’s Almanac, a resource that’s been used to predict weather patterns, planting charts, and astronomical data since 1792, offers 30 to 60 day long-range weather predictions online, now encompassing the holiday season. Showing “weather trends in temperatures and precipitation,” the predictions are made 18 months in advance, but are said to be “traditionally 80% accurate.”While we can’t guarantee that the Almanac’s forecasts will come to fruition, this first look gives us an idea of what to expect this Christmas. As the holiday fast approaches, keep your eyes on the weather for more up-to-date, specific weather predictions on December 25.”

See more from Travel and Leisure HERE:

 

_____________________________________________________________________

“2017 hurricane season ends with a number of records”

“Hurricane season officially ends at the end of November, and with nothing currently brewing in the Atlantic, it appears there won’t be another tropical storm or hurricane in what’s been a very active 2017. This year’s hurricane season was the most active since 2012, and it broke and/or tied a number of records. Hurricane after hurricane after hurricane Roughly two weeks after Emily, the beginnings of Hurricane Harvey formed in the middle of the Atlantic, and it would spend the next week churning through the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico as it got closer to the Texas coast, all while gaining strength. Harvey eventually hit Texas on August 25 as the first Category 4 storm to make a United States landfall since Charley in 2004 and the first major hurricane since Wilma in 2005.”

See more from News 5 Cleveland HERE:

 

__________________________________________________________________

“Thunderstorms create radioactivity, scientists discover”

“Thunder and lightning have sparked awe and fear in humans since time immemorial. In both modern and ancient cultures, these natural phenomena are often thought to be governed by some of the most important and powerful gods – Indra in Hinduism, Zeus in Greek mythology and Thor in Norse mythology. We know that thunderstorms can trigger a number of remarkable effects, most commonly power cuts, hailstorms and pets hiding under beds. But it turns out we still have things to learn about them. A new study, published in Nature, has now shown that thunderstorms can also produce radioactivity by triggering nuclear reactions in the atmosphere. This may sound like the plot of a blockbuster science fiction disaster. But in reality, it’s nothing to worry about. Since the early 20th century, scientists have been aware of ionising radiation – particles and electromagnetic waves that can damage cells – raining down into the Earth’s atmosphere from space. This radiation can react with atoms or molecules, carrying enough energy to liberate electrons from either atoms or molecules. It therefore leaves behind an “ion” with a positive electrical charge.”

See more from The Conversation HERE:

 

___________________________________________________________

Thanks for checking in and don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX