IRMA’s Track

Irma was an interesting storm as it started as a wave of energy off the west coast of Africa that quickly became a tropical storm just a few days later. 6 days after turning into a tropical storm, it was a category 5 hurricane! It then moved through the Caribbean and eventually made landfall with southern Florida on September 10th.

Picking Up After Irma

IRMA made landfall in Florida as a strong hurricane on Sunday, which caused widespread damage across the state. Here are some images from a few Police Departments in Florida:


Power Outages Seen From Space

WOW! This is interesting. You can actually seen the lack of light from a satellite picture! As of Monday morning, there were more than 5.7 million people without power in Florida alone!


IRMA Disrupts Air Traffic Over Florida

Take a look at the flights across the Southeast on Sunday and note the absence of Florida! Due to the significant size of Hurricane Irma, many flights were avoiding flying over the state.



WOW! How about this… IRMA made landfall in the Lower Florida Keys on September 10th, which is officially the peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season. Interestingly, Hurricane Donna made landfall in the Keys on the same day back in 1960!

Record Amount of Tornado Warnings

According to the National Weather Service out of Melbourne, FL, there were 48 tornado warnings issued for their DMA on Sunday, September 10th, which is the greatest amount of tornado warnings issued by their office for any single day. The next greatest was 15 back on August 19th, 2008. Also, the state of Florida had a record number of tornado warnings at 69 on Sunday, September 10th beating the previous of 47, which was set on June 24, 2012

IRMA Makes Landfall As A Major Category 4 Storm

This was the radar loop from early Sunday morning as Hurricane Irma officially made landfall along the Florida Keys. After briefly dropping down to category 3 strength during the day Saturday, IRMA intensified to a category 4 storm with sustained winds of 130mph (pressure at 929mb) just before making landfall in Cudjoe Key in the Lower Florida Keys at 9:10am Sunday morning. Interestingly, NEVER on record has there been (2) Category 4 hurricanes to make U.S. landfall in one Atlantic hurricane season until now! Hurricane Irma in the Florida Keys on Sunday, September 10th and Hurricane Harvey on Friday, August 25th. At 3:35pm, there was a second landfall near Marco Island, FL  as a category 3 storm with winds of 115mph (pressure at 940mb).

Satellite Loops of IRMA

Here are two satellite loops of IRMA from early Sunday. The first is the visible satellite as the sun comes up and makes landfall with the Lower Florida Keys. The 2nd is IR Satellite loop, which the eye of IRMA and a pretty intense eyewall surrounding it as it roars into the Keys. Note the size of IRMA, which is much larger than the state of Florida. So even though the brunt of the storm (wind and storm surge) will be felt along the west side of the state, the entire state will still see significant impacts.

IRMA – Early Monday
Here’s the IR satellite of IRMA early Monday, which is when it made the transition from hurricane to tropical storm. IRMA will continue to weaken over the next several days as it continues to lift north-northwest.
Tracking IRMA
Here’s the official National Hurricane Center track, which continues to show the storm weakening as it tracks northwest toward Memphis, TN  and eventually toward Paducah, KY. Gusty winds and areas of heavy rain will still be possible in these areas.


 Tracking IRMA

Here’s the GFS (American Model) track as the remnants of IRMA lift northwest through into the central part of the country through midweek. Areas of gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible. By the 2nd half of the week, only a few leftover showers maybe possible across parts of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic States and into the Northeast.
How Much Rain?
Here’s a look at the rainfall potential through midweek, which suggests rainfall tallies of  2″ to 4″+ possible across parts of the Tennessee Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic States.


Highest Wind Gusts Expected Thru Wednesday
Here’s a look at the peak wind gusts that can be expected through midweek. Note that the most significant winds of 100mph+ have faded, but  there still could be some tropical storm force (39mph+) gusts across parts of Georgia and the rest of the Southeast.


Still Tracking JOSE in the Atlantic

No rest for the weary in the Atlantic Basin with another strong hurricane still floating around. As of PM Monday, JOSE was a category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 100mph!


Tracking JOSE
Here’s the official National Hurricane Center forecast for JOSE over the next several days. Note that JOSE looks to stay east of the Bahamas and hopefully will stay there. However, after it does a loop in the Atlantic this week, it looks like it may circle back toward the East Coast by the weekend. While it is still too early to tell what is going to happen, it is worth watching.
Tracking JOSE
Here are the spaghetti plots for JOSE over the next several days, which suggests that after JOSE makes a loop east of the Bahamas over the week ahead, it could then start moving toward the East Coast. Stay tuned for more.




Atlantic Outlook Next 5 Days
Here’s the Atlantic outlook, which shows active conditions continuing. Note that as of Monday, IRMA was weakening in the Southeast, while JOSE was spinning east of the Bahamas. There is also another wave of energy well off to the east, which has a LOW chance of tropical formation over the next 5 days. Stay tuned.

September 10th – Official Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season
It’s only fitting that on the official peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season (September 10th), Hurricane IRMA made landfall with the Lower Florida Keys at 9:10am on Sunday, September 10th. Note that the season, on average, remains pretty active through the rest of September and throughout October, but falls dramatically into November. Keep in mind that the official end of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is November 30th.


PRELIMINARY 2017 Tornado Map

It certainly has been a fairly active first half of 2017 with 1344 preliminary tornado reports through September 9th. Note that this is the most tornadoes through September 9th since 2011, when there were 1,782 reports. The map below shows the distribution of the tornadoes so far this year.

PRELIMINARY 2017 Tornado Count

According to NOAA’s SPC, the PRELIMINARY 2017 tornado count is 1344 (through September 10th). Note that is the most active year for tornadoes since 2011, when there were 1,782 tornadoes. Keep in mind there was a major tornado outbreak in the Gulf Coast region from April 25-28, 2011 that spawned nearly 500 tornadoes, some of which were deadly. That outbreak is known as the Super Outbreak of 2011 and has gone down in history as one of the biggest, costliest and one of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in history.


National Weather Hazards Ahead…

1.) Heavy rain for the northern Rockies and northern high Plains, Thu-Fri, Sep 14-15.
2.) Much below-normal temperatures for the northern Rockies and northern high Plains, Thu-Sun, Sep 14-17.
3.) High winds for parts of the Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula, Fri-Sun, Sep 15-17.
4.) Significant waves shifting north from the Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic, Sat-Mon, Sep 16-18.
5.) Significant waves from the mid-Atlantic north to New England, Tue-Wed, Sep 19-20.
6.) Flooding occurring across parts of southeast Texas.
7.) Flooding likely across the Florida Peninsula.
8.) Flooding possible across parts of Florida, Georgia, and the southern Appalachians.
9.) A slight risk of much below-normal temperatures for parts of the western U.S., Tue-Thu, Sep 19-21.
10.) Severe drought across the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, and Hawaii.


“The unprecedented drought that’s crippling Montana and North Dakota”

It came without warning, and without equivalent. Now a flash drought is fueling fires and hurting the lives of those who work the land. When Rick Kirn planted his 1,000 acres of spring wheat in May, there were no signs of a weather calamity on the horizon. Three months later, when he should have been harvesting and getting ready to sell his wheat, Kirn was staring out across vast cracked, gray, empty fields dotted with weeds and little patches of stunted wheat. “It’s a total loss for me,” said Kirn, who operates a small family wheat farm on the Fort Peck Reservation, an area of north-eastern Montana that lies right in the heart of the extreme climatic episode. “There’s nothing to harvest.”Kirn’s story is typical across the high plains in Montana and the Dakotas this summer, where one of the country’s most important wheat growing regions is in the grips of a crippling drought that came on with hardly any warning and, experts say, is without precedent.”

See more from the Guardian HERE:

(A wildfire burns in the Lolo national forest in Montana in August. The severe drought has served as ideal conditions for continued fires. Photograph: Rion Sanders/AP via The Guardian)


Latest Drought Monitor

Here’s the latest drought update from the US Drought Monitor, which shows EXCEPTIONAL drought conditions, which now covers nearly 26% of Montana. Note that 91% of the state is in a MODERATE drought. In North Dakota, more than 25% of the state is considered to be in an EXTREME drought.

Rain Needed to End Drought

Exceptional and Extreme drought conditions are in place over parts of Montana and North and South Dakota due to several weeks/months of hot and dry weather. The image below suggests how much rain would be needed to end the drought, which suggests nearly 6″ to 12″ or more!


Chetco Bar Fire – 5 Miles Northeast of Brookings, OR

The Chetco Bar Fire in near Brookings, Oregon is a very large wildfire in the Western US that started on Wednesday,  July 12th by lightning and has grown to more than 182,000 acres! There are more than 1,400 people working on this fire, which is only 5% contained. The estimated containment date is set for Sunday, October 15th.

See more from Inciweb HERE:

Ongoing Large Wildfires

Here’s a look at the current wildfire map across the country. Continued hot and dry weather has helped to spark several wildfires across the Western US. There have even been fires popping up in the Eastern U.S., two of the larger fires are burning in Florida.

Here’s a list of all the current large wildfires from Inciweb:

National Smoke Analysis
Here’s the projected wildfire smoke concentration for midday Tuesday, which suggests that smoke from wildfires burning across parts of Western Canada and the Western US could continue to linger around the Northwest and Midwest. There also appears a very high concentration of smoke across parts of the Northeast. If you are in these areas, air quality could be a little poor, but these areas may also be enjoying very interesting looking sunrises/sunsets, which tend to look hazy or reddish-orange.

National Weather Outlook

Here’s the weather outlook through midweek, which shows the remnants of IRMA moving through the Southeast with more heavy rain and gusty winds. The good news is that it will continue to weaken with as areas of heavy rain begin through the 2nd half of the week. Also note the next wave of energy moving into the Western US areas of heavy rain. There also appears to be enough cold air for some of the first snow of the season across the high elevations in the Northern Rockies.

5 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA’s WPC, the next several days could produce areas of locally heavy rainfall across parts of the Southeastern and Northwestern US. The remnants of IRMA will continue to  push through the Southeast through the first part of the week. The next system moving into the Western US will produce areas of 2″ to 4″ rainfall tallies. Note that some of the heaviest will be found in Montana, where they really need it! There may also be some SNOW in the higher elevations!

Snowfall Potential
The next system that moves into the Western US will actually bring enough cold air with it to change some of the moisture into snow across the higher elevations. This could be the first decent snow of the season in the Mountain for parts of the Northern and Canadian Rockies.
Severe Threats: Tuesday & Wednesday
According to NOAA’s SPC, Hurricane IRMA will continue to keep the threat of severe weather in place across parts of the Mid-Atlantic region on Tuesday. One of the main concerns will be the potential of tornadoes as the storm lifts north through the region.

Excessive Rainfall Potential Monday & Tuesday

According to NOAA’s WPC, there is a MODERATE risk of excessive rain on Monday across parts of the as heavy rain from Hurricane IRMA lifts north. By Tuesday, the heaviest rainfall will likely start fading, but there is still a MARGINAL risk of heavy rainfall

Weekend Thunderstorms – Lessons of Hurricane Irma
By Paul Douglas
A few thoughts circulating through my muddled mind. There is no spot on Earth with perfect weather. Florida is a tropical paradise, 99.9 percent of the time. But the same warm water that beckons us south also spins up nature’s deadliest storm. Did the media over-hype Irma? Ask residents of Florida’s Keys, Marco Island or Naples. It’s hype until it happens – then it’s “Where were you? Why was there no warning?”
A worst-case scenario was averted for Miami and the Atlantic coast of Florida, but Irma’s south-to-north track and massive wind field may result in a damage toll that meets or even exceeds Harvey. And Jose is waiting in the wings. Long-range computer models show a potential hurricane approaching the Mid Atlantic or New England a week from now. Bad things happen in threes, right?
Enjoy 80s Tuesday because the arrival of cooler air sparks scattered T-storms from late Thursday into Sunday AM. A few severe storms can’t be ruled out; downpours are likely.
Free Canadian A/C Monday gives way to a warming trend next week. Yes, we have precious little to complain about.
Extended Forecast
TUESDAY: Hazy, smoky sun. Winds: SE 3-8. High: 83.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: SE 5. Low: 61
WEDNESDAY: Sticky sun, feels like August. Winds: S 5-10. High: 84.
THURSDAY: Some sun, few PM T-storms. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 63. High: 82.
FRIDAY: Sticky. Few strong to severe storms. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 64. High: 83.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Strong storms late. Winds: SW 7-12. Wake-up: 66. High: 79.
SUNDAY: Wet start, then slow clearing. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 61. High: 75.
MONDAY: Sunny and pleasant, naturally. Winds: S 5-10. Wak-up: 57. High 76

This Day in Weather History
September 12th

1982: Two tornadoes touch down in Benton County. The F2 tornado causes $250,000 worth of damage, and an F0 tornado causes $25,000.

1931: The fifth consecutive day of 90 degrees or above occurs in the Minneapolis area.

1923: Winter weather pays an early visit to northern Minnesota. The cities of Roseau and Virginia receive flurries and sleet.

1903: 4.96 inches of rain fall in the Minneapolis area.

1869: A hail storm between 1 and 3 am breaks windows and causes considerable damage to late vegetables at Madilia in Watonwan County.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis
September 12th

Average High: 73F (Record: 94F set in 1948)
Average Low: 54F (Record: 36F set in 1940)

Record Rainfall: 4.96″ set in 1903

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
September 12th

Sunrise: 6:48am
Sunset: 7:29pm

Hours of Daylight: 12hours & 40mins

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~3 minutes and 4 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 20th): ~2 hours & 57 minutes

Moon Phase for September 12th at Midnight
0.0 Days Before Last Quarter

Weather Outlook For Tuesday

Tuesday will be another summerlike day with highs in the 70s and 80s across the state. The good news is that it won’t be quite as humid as it was on Monday as dewpoints will likely slip into the 50s across much of the state.

Weather Outlook For Tuesday
Winds will switch to more of a southerly direction on Tuesday, which will help to keep warm air in place across the region.


Weather Outlook For Tuesday

Tuesday will be another mostly sunny day across much of the Upper Midwest. Enjoy the sunshine and mild weather while you can, it appears that weather conditions will sour a bit by the upcoming weekend.


 UV Index for Tuesday – HIGH

The UV Index for Tuesday will be HIGH, which means that it will only 20 to 30 minutes or less to burn unprotected skin. With that said, if you are planning on spending any extended length of time outside, make sure you wear appropriate attire and lather on the sun block!


Simulated Radar Ahead…
Here’s the simulated radar across the Upper Midwest as we head through the rest of the week and into the weekend ahead. Note that much of the week will remain quiet, but things could get more active as we head into the end of the week and weekend ahead. Note that some of the storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall. Stay tuned for more.

Rainfall Potential Ahead

The rainfall forecast  through PM Friday suggests rainfall finally moving back into the region after several days of dry weather. The heaviest looks to be found across the northwestern part of the state with some 1″+ tallies possible.


Pollen Forecast

Itchy, sneezy? I tend to get a little more allergic as we head into September until the first frosts of the season start to arrive. With that said, according to, the allergy forecast for Minneapolis suggests medium to medium-high to levels over the next few days. AHHH-CHOOO!!!




Minneapolis Temperature Outlook

Here’s the temperature outlook through September 25th, which shows temps warming into the 80s this week, but will fall into the 60s and 70s as we head into the 2nd half of the month.

6 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA’s CPC, the extended temperature outlook from September 16th through the 20th suggests warmer than average temperatures settling back in across much of the Midwest, Great Lakes and Central part of the country.


Extended Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA’s CPC, the extended temperature outlook through September 20th shows that a good chunk of the Eastern and Southern U.S. will be warmer than average, but the Northwestern US will remain cooler than average.



The most interesting and scary things we’ve seen on social media during Hurricane Irma”
“We’ve seen some incredible things from Hurricane Irma, thanks to social media. From firsthand accounts of the devastation in the Caribbean to landfall in the Keys, the medium has proved invaluable. Here are some of the most interesting things we’ve seen come across our feeds. We will update this post through the duration of Hurricane Irma.”


“As Irma’s Winds Rise, So Does a Debate Over TV Storm Reporting”
Early Sunday morning, Bill Weir, a veteran CNN correspondent, was talking to the anchor Chris Cuomo in the middle of a live shot in Key Largo, Fla. He could barely stand up straight in the lashing winds of Hurricane Irma. At one point, he was nearly blown over by a gust. As video of the incident spread on social media, criticism mounted. “Why do these news networks feel the need to put these reporters out there?” read one tweet. Another said: “This is not safe. Lead by example.” Others pointed out that reporters were standing in conditions that they were advising residents to stay out of. Even Mr. Cuomo acknowledged the criticism: “There is a strong argument to be made that standing in a storm is not a smart thing to do.”
(Mike Seidel, a meteorologist for the Weather Channel, fighting fierce winds and flooded streets in Miami on Sunday. Cr(editErik S. Lesser/European Pressphoto Agency)



“Fires, droughts and hurricanes: What’s the link between climate change and natural disasters?”

“With Hurricane Irma smashing into Florida so soon after Hurricane Harvey flooded southeastern Texas — and as wildfires burn through the western United States — extreme events have been hitting the U.S. from all sides. To what extent does climate change influence them? Here are a few ways researchers think that climate change’s effects could play out. SEA LEVEL RISE AND STORM SURGE: As sea levels continue to rise due to global warming, they’re increasing the risk of storm surge — the dangerously high floods caused by a storm pushing water onshore. Those floodwaters are responsible for much of the damage left by hurricanes — particularly in highly populated coastal cities.

A 2013 study in PNAS found that the risk of a Hurricane Katrina-level storm surge rose two to seven times for every 1.8-degree Fahrenheit increase in temperature.”

See more from LATimes HERE:


_____________________________________________________________“Beached Manatees Rescued From Low Tide In Wake of Hurricane Irma”

“A group of Florida residents came across two beached manatees Sunday afternoon in a bay that had dried up as a result of Hurricane Irma. The manatees were stuck in the mud about 100 yards from deeper water, near Whitfield Avenue and U.S. Route 41 in Manatee County, Florida, the Bradenton Herald reported. “We had to do something about it,” local resident Tony Faradini-Campos told the Sarasota Herald-Tribune. “We couldn’t just let those manatees die out there. We shared the pictures on social media and it just blew up.” The individuals who found the manatees originally tried to move them themselves, but were not successful and had to bring in further assistance. “We actually reached out to some friends who work for the county that ended up going out there and rescuing them,” Michael Sechler, one of the passersby who discovered the manatees, told HuffPost. Two Manatee County deputies and officials from the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission came to the bay to help the rescue effort, the Herald-Tribune reported.”

See more from HuffingtonPost HERE:


__________________________________________________________________“Dissecting the parts of a hurricane”

Irma is a big one. Its circulation spans hundreds of miles in all directions, large enough to fully engulf the entire peninsula of Florida at once. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center, with blustery conditions felt from the Caribbean to the Carolinas. With impacts felt across such a wide area, it’s important to understand the threats of each part of Irma; whether it’s the spiral rainbands or the infamous eyewall, danger extends well beyond Irma’s center. The most dangerous ‘right-front quadrant’ Irma is like a giant atmospheric buzz saw, scouring the ground wherever she strikes. But if you picture this counterclockwise spinning saw blade moving along the ground at a forward speed of 15 mph, it stands to reason that winds on the right-hand side would be amplified by this motion. If the storm is spinning at 120 mph and trekking along at 15, then gusts to 135 would buffet areas beneath the right-side eyewall. Likewise, this effect actually makes life a bit easier on the left side; there, surface winds are reduced to “only” 105 mph, lessening the ferocity of the storm. For that reason, you may have heard meteorologists refer to the “right front quadrant” of Irma as the most dangerous sector of the storm.

See more from WashingtonPost HERE:


“Why Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma Are Terrific News For This One Company”

“As Houston tallies up the damage from Hurricane Harvey and Florida prepares for Irma’s potential landfall, Wall Street investors are searching for potential winners amid what are shaping up to be two of the costliest storms in U.S. history. One such high-climber? Lumber Liquidators, a hardwood flooring firm that could benefit as homeowners seek material to rebuild. Lumber Liquidators has been in a slump since 2015, when 60 Minutes reported, and the CDC later confirmed, that some of its products could increase users’ risk of cancer. The company’s stock rallied slightly after the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission completed a probe without issuing recalls. But the Commission also failed to reassure consumers with health concerns, causing lasting damage to the brand’s appeal. But Lumber Liquidators’ stock is now hitting levels not seen since just after the 60 Minutes segment — in part thanks to Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma.”

See more from HERE:


___________________________________________________________________________“The Role Of Climate Change In Extreme Weather Events”

“As Houston struggled in the aftermath of the record-breaking rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, and no fewer than three hurricanes simultaneously moved across the Atlantic basin, a reader asked if I could explain the role of climate change in the recent extreme weather events. I want to connect the dots with arguments that aren’t really controversial. First, is the climate changing? Almost everyone would agree that this is the case. What some would dispute is whether human activity is a significant contributor. I accept that it is, but I won’t attempt to make that case here. If you don’t accept that human activity is impacting the climate, I won’t be able to convince you in a short article here. But let’s agree that the climate is changing. There are multiple lines of evidence that indicate that the earth is warming. One piece of evidence is that the surface temperature of the oceans is climbing. NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) has determined that since 1880, the average global surface temperature of the ocean has increased by about 1 degree Fahrenheit (°F). (See their methodology here). Relative to the average temperature from 1971 to 2000, the surface temperature over the past five years has risen about 0.5°F.”

See more from HERE:

(A convenience store owner walks through floodwaters from Hurricane Harvey outside an Exxon Mobil Corp. gas station in Houston, Texas, U.S., on Wednesday, Aug. 30, 2017. Unprecedented flooding from the Category 4 storm that slammed into the state’s coast last week, sending gasoline prices surging as oil refineries shut, may also set a record for rainfall in the contiguous U.S., the weather service said Tuesday. Photographer: Luke Sharrett/Bloomberg)


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